The Cauceyed State

This Thursday the Iowans caucus. That arcane communal ritual may decide who squares off in the November presidential elections. Most of the candidates have focused on winning the Hawkeye state. All of their destinies hinge on the outcome.

Those candidates who did not establish an early lead in Iowa faced two fates: stagnation or surge. Initially undecided Democratic caucusgoers have sided with the three initial frontrunners -- Obama, Clinton, and Edwards. Richardson, Dodd, Biden, and the other trivial candidates have stagnated at minuscule percentages in the polls. The lesser candidates of both parties must envy Huckabee, who has experienced a remarkable surge since October. He has probably attracted the values-voters who might have supported the bygone campaigns of Brownback and Tancredo. And after Thompson's lackluster start, it was easy for an evangelical Southern candidate to pick up steam as an alternative to Romney, the flop-flipping heathen from Massachusetts.

Although Huckabee stands a few points ahead of Romney in the most recent poll, his recent gaffes could catch up with him by Thursday. The floating cross campaign ad suggested that under Huckabee's upright facade lies a cancerous growth of Clintonian insincerity. Supporting evidence for this possibility came on Monday, when Huckabee held a press conference claiming that only 30 minutes earlier, in the spirit of clean-handed politics, he had decided to pull a TV spot attacking Mitt Romney. Huckabee proceeded to air the ad on a projector, in effect broadcasting it free of charge via journalists. To peals of laughter from the audience, Huckabee insisted that it was essential to show the ad in front of the hypercynical media to prove that it existed in the first place.

If Huckabee takes Iowa, he'll be a shoe-in in South Carolina. Romney wins Iowa in the event of a Huckabee loss. The resultant windfall of publicity could propel Romney over McCain in New Hampshire, in effect deciding the nomination. McCain is currently polling in single digits in Iowa -- he needs a big assist from Huckabee.

An article in the Times discusses the possibility of an inconclusive result in Iowa. Among the Democrats, a neck and neck finish between the three top contenders would throw Edwards a life raft. He could go on to victory in South Carolina, assuming that he doesn't lose too badly in New Hampshire and Obama doesn't rally the entire black vote behind him. An inconclusive result probably disfavors Obama, who would split the radical liberal vote with Edwards in Iowa and then New Hampshire, thereby guaranteeing Clinton's victory. Obama needs victory and a clear Edwards defeat in Iowa to contend with Clinton in New Hampshire. If Clinton blatantly loses in Iowa her game could be up in New Hampshire.

The consequences of an equivocal Republican result in Iowa could be even more convoluted. National poll leaders -- McCain and, until recently, Giuliani -- obviously benefit from a near tie between Huckabee and Romney. If that situation allows McCain to handily take New Hampshire, Giuliani's investment in the later primaries would probably yield paltry returns, since Giuliani and McCain seem to derive support from similar constituencies.

The unprecendented amount of money flowing into the Iowa campaign means that a stalemate among the candidates could be considered a devastating loss of resources. Although Iowa might have marginalized its political significance by caucusing absurdly early, either a stalemate among candidates or checkmate by any one candidate in the Hawkeye state will determine the course of events in the rapid succession of primaries that follow.